NewInvesting··10 min
The 4% Rule's Own Author Now Says 4.7%. Morningstar Says 3.9%.
Same question, two credible answers, 0.8 percentage points apart. On a $1 million portfolio that is $8,000 a year of spending. The gap is not a disagreement about facts, it is a disagreement about whether to forecast the future or replay the past, and knowing which you are relying on matters more than the number.
retirement4% rulesafe withdrawal rate