#mortgage-rates

The Fed sets an overnight rate. Your 30-year mortgage is priced off the 10-year Treasury plus a spread that nobody at the Fed controls. That's why rates have gone UP after cuts, more than once, and why waiting for the Fed is a losing strategy.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks have come down and markets rallied. But the June dot plot has nine of eighteen officials penciling in a hike, and futures still price one by September. The market is not front-running cuts. It is front-running the absence of a hike, and calling that a pivot.

Everyone's waiting for rate cuts to fix affordability. They won't. The Fed just penciled in more hikes than cuts for 2026, prices are at all-time highs, and the real problem is a 4-million-home hole that lower rates make worse, not better.