#ipo

OpenAI has confidentially filed for what would be the largest tech IPO ever. Strip away the noise and the whole trade comes down to a multiple that assumes flawless execution in a market where the competitor is reportedly ahead on revenue and the price of a token is falling off a cliff.

xAI priced a $20B round at $230B on January 6, 2026. Twenty-four days later its board declared fair value had doubled and merged the company into SpaceX at a combined $1.25T. Five months after that, SPCX opened on Nasdaq at $1.77T. The merger was IPO plumbing, not corporate strategy.

How to evaluate a tech IPO like a sophisticated investor: unit economics, S-1 red flags, lock-up traps, and what the 2025 class actually taught us.