#interest rates

The indicator with the famous unbroken record just broke it. The 2022 inversion was the longest in the data series and the recession did not arrive on schedule. What is more interesting is that the moment everyone watches, the inversion itself, was never the part that lined up with recessions anyway.

The Fed held at 3.50-3.75% for a fifth straight meeting, but the vote was 9-3 and all three dissents wanted a hike. That is the most dissents since 2016. Underneath it is a question the Fed has openly admitted it cannot answer yet, and it has commissioned task forces to go find out.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks have come down and markets rallied. But the June dot plot has nine of eighteen officials penciling in a hike, and futures still price one by September. The market is not front-running cuts. It is front-running the absence of a hike, and calling that a pivot.

Your early mortgage payments are almost all interest, and almost none of it touches the balance. Here is how amortization, PITI, escrow, and extra payments actually work, with a real schedule.

Inflation is the slow decline in what a dollar buys, tracked by the CPI. Here is what causes it, why the Fed targets 2%, and why sitting in cash is a quiet, guaranteed loss.

A bond is just a loan you make to a government or company, with the terms written down. Here is how the coupon, face value, and maturity fit together, why bond prices move opposite to interest rates, and what role bonds actually play in a regular investor's portfolio.